CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-13T19:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16902/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, "This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T18:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-17T08:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 475.0 km/s EAMv2 output: u_r = 529.341 Acceleration: -0.299686 Duration in seconds: 279060.73 Duration in days: 3.2298695 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.30 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/05/2021 Time: 08:14 UTLead Time: 19.60 hour(s)
Difference: -13.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-05-15T23:00Z
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